In the annual Global Peace Index released on Wednesday, the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) said an estimated 971 million people including more than 2.4 million Australians live in areas with high exposure to climate hazards including cyclones, floods, bushfires, desertification and rising sea level. The top nine countries facing the highest risk of climate hazards were all Asian nations with the Philippines topping the list, followed by Japan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and China. In 2019, the world became very slightly more peaceful for the first time in five years, said the IEP, which used data from groups including think tanks, research institutes, governments and universities to compile the index.

Climate hazards exacerbate conflict and migration
The report, which ranks 163 countries by measuring internal safety and security, militarisation and ongoing conflict included climate change risks for the first time this year to evaluate links between climate hazards and violence.
It found climate pressures can adversely impact resource availability and affect population dynamics, which can impact socioeconomic and political stability.
“When you start to get massive effects from climate change you start to get large flows of refugees,” Mr Killelea said, adding that this migration can increase instability and the impact of terrorism on host nations.
Mr Killelea listed several countries where climate change has caused or exacerbated violence including Nigeria, where desertification has led to conflict over scarce resources, Haiti in the aftermath of multiple hurricanes and earthquakes, and South Sudan, where the drying of Lake Chad has exasperated tensions. In 2017, over 60 per cent of total displacements around the world were due to climate-related disasters, while nearly 40 per cent were caused by armed conflict. More peaceful countries are better-placed to cope with climate-induced shocks and tend to have higher environmental performance than less peaceful nations, for whom climate shocks are harder to manage, the report found.
“The impacts of fluctuating climate conditions on societal stability and its potential to lead to violent conflict is of growing importance.”
Peacefulness in the Asia-Pacific region improved by 3 per cent, but the region also experienced a higher number of refugees, terrorism and higher levels of internal conflict. Australia fell one place in the index to rank 13th due to an increase in militarisation — namely weapons imports military expenditure and nuclear and heavy weapons, and the incarceration rate in Australia also rose.

“Research is clear that changes in the natural environment impose stress on human societies.” While admitting “long-term” evidence on the link between climate change and peace is “scarce”, the report states that what there is, “suggests that climate has played a role in triggering or exacerbating conflict through its effects on livelihood security and resource availability.”